Frontier Daily, 24 November: Argentina, Angola losses; Ecuador, Ukraine gains

• Argentina eurobonds -1% as US banks pause US$20bn repo-style loan talks, may shrink to US$5bn support

• Trump tells Ukraine accept peace plan or lose US aid; hints terms may soften; We retained Buy 36A/Sell 29A last week

• Ecuador eurobonds +0.8% on Fitch upgrade to B-; we see silver lining in referendum loss; kept Buy on ’35s last week

  
  

EM eurobonds inched 0.1% lower on Friday with index spreads 3bps wider overall and 4bps wider in the high yield segment, in contrast to the 1bp tightening in US corporate high yield spreads. Dovish comments from FOMC member Williams on Friday sparked gains in US equities (+1%) and US 10-year treasuries (yields -2bps to 4.06%), with futures-implied odds of 25bps rate cut in December now at 71.3% (up from 42.4% a week ago).

Argentina topped EM eurobond losses on Friday, down 1% amid reports US banks were pulling back from the US$20bn repo-style support facility previously being negotiated. The deal was reportedly shelved as the banks waited for US Treasury guidance on guarantees and collateral, with talk of a smaller US$5bn loan. We maintained our Buy on the external and local bonds on 27 October following the immediate post-election rally.

Angola also sold off on Friday, down 1% in a reversal of Thursday's gains, leaving index yields back above the 10% threshold. The IMF encouraged the government to cut fuel subsidies last week following a meeting with the President in Luanda. We retained our Hold recommendation on the ANGOL '32s in September, weighing declining oil revenues against the prospect of imminent issuance, which occurred in October, raising US$1.75bn, ameliorating concerns about the 12 November 2025 eurobond maturity.