Côte d’Ivoire at the crossroads: Electoral volatility ahead

• Côte d’Ivoire continues to have strong fundamentals vs peers, the presidential election will be held on 25 October

• Exclusion of the two main opposition candidates increases the risk of radical action and violence

• Bond prices do not reflect higher election risk
  
  

With elections approaching we think that it is important to highlight the increased risk of violence given the limited space offered to the opposition.

During the 2020 election cycle spreads widened c90bps in memory of the 2010 election and its follow-up civil conflict. While we do not think that we should reach the same level of violence as in 2010, and the lasts election in 2020 generally passed off with only limited unrest, we expect a tense election.

Victory for the incumbent President Alassane Ouattara is all but guaranteed at this juncture. This is why, post-election, and providing any unrest quickly dissipates, we expect that Cote d’Ivoire's track record of sound macroeconomic policies will continue and that it should remain the best credit in the region…